The hottest international oil price rises, coal to

2022-10-15
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High international oil prices, coal to liquid and new energy enterprises benefit

recently, international oil prices have risen. JPMorgan Chase said on December 3 that the international crude oil price will reach $120 a barrel by the end of 2012, mainly because the energy consumption of emerging economies will continue to grow

the impact of higher oil prices on the chemical industry is different. For example, coal chemical industry and energy industry benefit from the era of high oil prices

coal chemical products have become the inevitable choice of the market under the background of high oil prices

first, the competitiveness of coal chemical products under high oil prices has become increasingly prominent. Since oil replaced coal as the dominant energy consumption structure in the world in the mid-20th century, it still accounts for about 40% of the energy consumption structure. Oil is highly sensitive to changes in the international situation. International oil prices often fluctuate violently. The world has experienced three oil crises. At present, the international crude oil price has exceeded 130 US dollars/barrel. Considering the scarcity of oil resources, the cleaning method is to refuel the oil tank of the experimental engine. We predict that it will be difficult for crude oil to fall sharply in the future. In this case, coal chemical products have become the inevitable choice of the market under the background of high oil prices

secondly, the development of coal chemical industry is in line with China's national conditions and energy structure. China's crude oil reserves account for only 1.4% of the world, belonging to the oil shortage country. Due to the limitation of resource endowment, China's domestic oil production is up to about 200 million tons. According to the 2008 China energy development report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the average annual growth rate of oil demand from 2007 to 2010 is 4.5%. By 2010 and 2020, China's oil consumption will reach 407 million tons and 563 million tons respectively. If there is no tension testing machine, also known as universal material testing machine, and a large oil field is discovered in the next 10 to 20 years, the bottleneck of oil resources will endanger domestic energy security. China has relatively large reserves of coal resources. In 2007, China's coal output was 2.523 billion tons. Based on the service life of coal resources that can be directly used is about years, China's coal resources can basically meet the needs of energy production and coal chemical industry development by regulating the production, import and export of coal. Coal to methanol, dimethyl ether, coal olefins and coal to oil will be the focus of investment in the next 15 years

an expert analysis recently released by a station believes that when the oil price rises, petrochemical enterprises in the oil industry chain tend to increase the product price in order to pass on the cost, which will expand the difference between the product cost and the product price in the coal chemical industry chain and improve the profit space of coal chemical enterprises. Therefore, if the oil price exceeds $100, it means that the cost of products starting from the oil industry chain will rise rapidly, which will inject new profit impetus into coal chemical enterprises

on December 7, a deputy general manager of Shanxi Lu'an Coal Based Synthetic Oil Co., Ltd. said that the rise in oil prices was good for coal to oil enterprises. For example, the raw materials used by their enterprises are low-quality coal that cannot be used by power plants. Even if the oil price drives the coal price up, the low-quality coal will not rise much. At present, the domestic diesel supply is tight, and the diesel produced by them with inferior coal is also very popular. With the rise of international oil prices driving up the price of diesel oil in refineries, diesel oil produced from coal to liquids can take a ride. The economic benefits of products rising but raw materials not rising are naturally considerable. It is understood that at present, the price of raw coal used by Lu'an company is 300-400 yuan per ton, and more than 3 tons of coal can produce 1 ton of diesel oil, while at present, the diesel oil produced by Lu'an company can be sold for more than 7000 yuan per ton. In this round of rising oil prices, diesel prices at some local gas stations have reached the 8000 yuan per ton mark. As the price of diesel oil rises, the profits of their enterprises are also increasing by more than 10%. However, the vice president said that due to the huge investment in the construction of the coal to liquid project, most of the profits they earned had to repay loans and deduct equipment depreciation. Rising oil prices will ease the huge pressure on project construction investment and shorten the investment recovery cycle. Although the coal to liquid industry will show cost advantages in the period of high oil prices, the factors of huge project investment and high carbon emissions in production should be considered at the same time. Therefore, he believes that the coal to oil industry still needs the national overall planning and standardized development, and cannot be liberalized

the era of high oil prices leads the rapid development of new energy industry.

compared with before the financial crisis, new energy industry has been added to the list of industries benefiting from high oil prices. The rising price of crude oil will make people have to consider the approaching energy crisis and the importance of economic alternative energy. Many securities companies released analysis reports that under the expectation of global economic recovery, the continuous rise of oil prices will once again open the development space of alternative energy. At the same time, when the economy recovers, the demand for energy will also make all parties pay more attention to new energy and investment in low-carbon economy related industries. Therefore, chemical enterprises related to photovoltaic, wind power and lithium batteries will have room for performance improvement

photovoltaic industry:

the average price of crude oil is expected to reach $100 in 2011. Affected by the quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, we expect the average international crude oil price to reach about $100 next year. Affected by this, the global photovoltaic demand is still optimistic

the growth rate of global photovoltaic demand in 2011 is expected to be about 35%. In 2009, the global sales volume of photovoltaic modules was 7.3gw, with a year-on-year increase of 15%, and the sales volume was US $37.2 billion, which was basically flat year-on-year. Each blowtorch should be equipped with accurate devices to control the inflow rate of propane and air. In the first quarter of 2010, the global PV module shipment was 3.3gw, and in the second quarter of 2010, the global PV shipment was Wanhua: Polyurethane glass fiber reinforced paper honeycomb composite assisted vehicle lightweight 3.7gw, increasing for five consecutive quarters, with sales of $7.1 billion. It is estimated that the global component shipment in the third quarter of 2010 was 4.3gw, and the annual shipment was 14gw, an increase of about 90%. The global photovoltaic demand growth in 2011 is expected to be about 35%, reaching about 19gw

lithium battery:

frost Sullivan predicts that from 2013 to 2015, with the reduction of lithium-ion battery prices and the development of basic industries, the electric vehicle battery market will develop rapidly

from a global perspective, Asia (mainly Japan, South Korea and China) is currently the main market for battery chemical materials, with its market share accounting for more than 80% of the world. At the same time, the European and American markets are also developing rapidly, and will become an important market for battery chemical materials in the future. The fluctuation of oil prices, the change of energy demand in the process of urbanization, the government's incentive policies for new energy and the development of battery technology will promote the development of the chemical materials market for electric vehicle batteries

wind power:

the impact of rising oil prices has made renewable energy a new hot spot for multinational companies to invest in China. In May, 2010, the wind turbine production base set up in Tianjin by COMESA, the world's second largest wind power giant, was officially put into operation, which will be the second largest production base of COMESA overseas, second only to the United States. The total investment will reach 60million euros by 2008. Multinational companies are optimistic about the development of new energy industry

to sum up, coal chemical industry and new energy industry will launch a fierce attack in the period of high oil prices

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