The new problem of excess capacity in the hottest

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New problems in the paper industry: overcapacity and its countermeasures editor's note: overcapacity refers to the phenomenon that in a certain period of time, due to the centralized launching of the product projects by various enterprises, the increase of capacity in the market is relatively concentrated, which leads to the market unable to digest in time and the periodic oversupply of supply and demand, thus inhibiting the price and profit level of products. Guoyongxin, a strategic expert in the paper industry, published an article entitled "2007: new problems in the paper industry: overcapacity and its countermeasures" on his personal blog (). He believes that in 2007, overcapacity is inevitable under the conditions of market economy. Moderate overcapacity is beneficial to the adjustment of industrial structure. New phenomena in the development of China's paper industry. The full text is reproduced as follows for the readers

1. Overcapacity is a new phenomenon in the development process of China's paper industry.

in general, this is mainly due to the fact that with the increase of cold rolling processing rate, China's paper industry is a rare industry in which demand exceeds supply: a large number of paper and paperboard are imported every year. Despite the decline in imports and sharp increase in exports in recent years, the import volume is still large after the balance between imports and exports. In this sense, China's paper industry is in short supply

at present, among the 19 major categories of China's light industry, only papermaking and light industrial machinery are industries in which imports are greater than exports, and the other 17 major categories are exports greater than imports

the overcapacity we are talking about today refers to the phenomenon that in a certain period of time, the product projects of some kinds of paper are launched intensively, resulting in the relative concentration of capacity increase in the market, which makes the market unable to digest in time, resulting in a phased oversupply, thus curbing the product price and profit level

this is a new phenomenon in the transitional stage of China's paper industry from the growth stage to the mature stage. In the past, in the growth stage, as long as it is produced, it can be sold. There is no surplus problem in how much it is produced and how much it is sold

II. Overcapacity is inevitable under the conditions of market economy.

there is no overcapacity problem in the era of planned economy. The reason: the planned economy is approved by one pen, and the state investment is the main investment. Now the investment subjects are diversified, the approval authority is expanded, and everything depends on the market regulation

however, due to the information asymmetry in the market and the lag in the spontaneous adjustment of the market, overcapacity is inevitable

overcapacity is a normal market phenomenon. It is helpful for the healthy development of the industry and enterprises to face up to this phenomenon rather than cover it up, and to actively respond to this problem rather than passively avoid it

III. excessive overcapacity: causing a waste of social wealth

the paper industry is a capital intensive industry. The investment of advanced high-grade cultural paper per 10000 tons of production capacity needs 100million yuan of supporting funds. The investment of large-scale paper projects is generally in the range of billions or even billions of yuan, and the annual interest of the project is in the range of billions or even hundreds of millions of yuan

if the product price of the paper industry project fails to reach the expected level due to overcapacity, or even stops production due to the fact that the product cannot be sold out, and the equipment is not fully utilized or idle, it will cause a great waste of social wealth

IV. the industrial alliance capacity of the core enterprises upstream and downstream of the appropriate industrial chain is surplus: it is conducive to the adjustment of the industrial structure.

the appropriate excess capacity makes the supply slightly greater than the demand in the market, and consumers have enough room to choose products. At this time, products with good quality and appropriate prices can be sold. In this way, high-end products will crowd out middle-end products in the market, and middle-end products will crowd out low-end products, Eventually, the products with poor quality will not be sold, and the low-grade products will gradually be eliminated by the market

in such a process, backward products are eliminated, the product structure is continuously optimized, and the industrial structure is upgraded

v. how to deal with the existing overcapacity

products are exported to foreign markets, relieve the pressure on the domestic market, and find a way out for the overcapacity. After all, the cost of China 2's standard labor is low, and the products have cost-effective advantages in the global market. Since 2006, the export of paper enterprises led by Shandong Huatai Paper industry has increased rapidly, which is a good example of resolving overcapacity

if some flexible production measures can be taken into account during the project construction, that is, the paper machine has strong variety adaptability, it can be considered to produce other paper varieties in part of the time. For example, some foreign super calendered paper production lines also have coating equipment, that is, they can also produce lightweight coated paper

occupy market share through price war, and recover product prices after middle and low-grade products are squeezed out of the market. But this is a last resort

VI. attack and stratagem: eliminate overcapacity before it happens

strengthen information communication to prevent project crashes caused by poor information

relevant institutions should strengthen the scientific prediction of future markets and release them in time to help enterprises make correct judgments on market space. They should not only prevent overcapacity caused by blind starting, but also prevent underestimation of market prospects and missed development opportunities

when competing among enterprises, it is necessary to improve the game level, consider the reaction of competitors, and achieve rational thinking. We should consider:

is this project a good project

is this project a good project for me

only when we know ourselves and the enemy, can we win a hundred battles

VII. Eternal lessons: strengthen strategic research and improve investment level. The era of winning production has passed, and China's paper industry has entered a new era of winning strategy. The slightest difference in the direction of investment strategy will lead to a thousand miles of fallacies in investment results

in today's increasingly fierce and complex competition, a wrong decision may lead to an enterprise losing everything

to strengthen strategic research and improve investment level is the eternal lesson of entrepreneurs. It is an ideal testing equipment with simple operation, convenient use and stable performance

finally, I wish the participating Chinese and foreign entrepreneurs more brilliant achievements in the pulp and paper industry

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